Well I guess it depends on who you’re hearing it from. Recently I had an opportunity to listen to a public lecture with three speakers that are on the UNs Intergovernmetnal Panel on Climate Change. They talked about the good, the bad and the ugly aspects of what we’re in for.
The good news is that there is no doubt that people are responsible for the warming of the earth, the bad news is that unless there is political will things will get ugly. The ugly part does have a good bit though and that is there is a fair bit of work going on in ‘adaptive management’.
The first of the Climate Change speakers was Scott Power waving the Bureau of Meteorology flag. He gave us the low down on the temperature warm up and its effects.
There is an unequivocal acceleration and rise in sea level over the past 50 years, there is an underlying upward trend towards hotter temperatures and the only way to explain these aspects of climate is with models that fit the ‘people input factor’.
We have been experiencing these effects in Australia as a decrease in rainfall, especially in the South West of Australia; the Murray-Darling Basin is having its driest and warmest year on record, and there is a weakening of the global, thermal, tidal patterns.
Scott’s take home message was major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to avoid ‘dire projections’.
Hmmmm. Things were starting to seem a little gloomy at this point of the proceedings but then Kevin Hennessey a CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Scientist stepped up to the podium. He’s been working on global adaptation and vulnerability.
The back room boys have been undertaking a scientific review over the past 4 years to try and work out what might actually happen on our little blue and green ball we call Earth. They reckon that the negative impacts of climate change will become more severe, and the positive one is that the northwest passage will be open to shipping ‘cause the ice will have melted.
So what is in store? More heatwaves, more fire, droughts and storm surges. More intense cyclones and hail storms. Less snow and frost. Large areas of the mainland will have less soil moisture.
- Potential impacts-Water
o 45% less stream flow in Victoria by 2030
o 25% less water in the Murray Darling - Potential impacts-Ecosystems
o Kakadu will get saline infiltration
o Bleaching of coral reefs - Potential impacts-Agriculture
o Decline due to drought and fire - Potential impacts-Coastal
o Exacerbate risks due to severity and frequency of storm surges - Potential impacts-Industry & cities
o More blackouts
o Increased storm and fire damage
o Less water for coal based power stations - Potential impacts-Health
o Increased deaths from heat stress
o Mosquito borm diseases increase
o More food borne diseases - Potential impacts-Tourism
o Some tourist destinations may be more favourable
As far as adaptation goes us 2-legged folk have a real advantage over the natural systems and wildlife. Natural systems that are fragmented and urbanised don’t have a lot of room to move, especially if there are no corridors.
People can adapt because we have the ability to change our environment. We can reduce demand, conserve and become more efficient in our energy and water usage. We can build dams and desal plants.
The really scary part of Kevin’s session though was the revelation that current global warming effects that we are experiencing can only be matched by the models if the ‘worst case scenario’ is followed and that is a 6 degree rise in temperature. The take home message, we need action NOW, in the next 5-10 years..
The best was saved till last, Roger Beale. He was tasked with the message of hope and there is some because the technologies already exist that can make a difference, they just have to be implemented. Under the current political policies greenhouse gas emissions are still rising at about 25%.
Some of the areas where greenhouse gas reductions are possible include - Energy supply and building design. Reductions in greenhouse gasses can also be achieved by fuel switching and renewables
- Transport solutions include Biofuels(next generation), higher efficiency, hybrid vehicles, Landuse planning and Cycling
- Buildings need better Heating lighting insulation and Information about design
The goal that Roger was aiming for was emissions trending downwards by 2015-2030 and to avoid the really nasty future it has to be well and truly on the way down by 2020.
Politically Roger offered some solutions too. Climate change is a global problem so we all have to take action. It has been costed that 0.05% of global GDP would address the issues that need to be tackled to get things under control. I Googled the current world military spending, it is 2.5% of global GDP.
Roger mentioned some other political incentives that were needed to get things moving in the right direction included climate change policies, regulation by taxes and charges, tradeable permits, financial incentives and funding for research and development of renewables.
Whilst it appeared that Roger could see some solutions and there was a way forward his final statement was that he felt there was too much inertia in the system to meet the needed targets and he predicted that a 3 degree rise was probably what we were going to end up with, in which case ‘we better have a very good adaptation plan’.
This public lecture was sponsored by the Office of Corporate Development and Community Partnership and Tom Farrrell Institute for the Environment
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